Moneyball Fallacy

Is it possible to rid the world of the pernicious misreading of Moneyball that Billy Beane's "paradigm shifting strategy" somehow permanently minimizes the profound discrepancy between large- and small-market teams?

Beane developed a different method of evaluating players that, so long as the Oakland A's were the only team using the method, provided the A's with some advantage that might offset the revenue advantage of the Yankees, Red Sox, &c. Once Beane's approach was adopted by other teams, he lost the advantage.

If the Red Sox and the A's use basically the same approach to evaluating player A and Boston has more money to spend, Boston's deep pockets means that the Red Sox are going to get and keep the player. (See Kevin Youkilis.) When the evaluations strategies are the same, revenue goes back to being the key factor.

The Most Wonderful Time of the Year!

Yeah, the BCS stinks. It was stupid that the BCS didn't allow Oklahoma to play Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Yes, we need a playoff. But in the meantime, we have 32, yes THIRTY-TWO College Football Bowls between tonight and the BCS Championship. That is alot of football goodness. Yes, the Keith Jackson Bowl Pool is back for the 11th year. Yes, I plan to finally win the damn thing. Since we started these contests have grown in popularity --so much so that now Yahoo, ESPN and countless others have similar confidence pools.

Every sports site around has previews and predictions. Here's one for tonight's Poinsettia Bowl between Utah and Navy by Rivals.com. I picked Utah over Navy with a confidence value of 22pts (out of 32pts). But the schedule just keeps on coming. So when you're bored by the writers' strike or at a bar drinking beer w/ pals, there's almost always a game on. Good times!

POINSETTIA BOWL
San Diego
Dec. 20, 9 p.m. (ESPN) Utah (8-4) vs. Navy (8-4)
Last season: No. 25 TCU 37, Northern Illinois 7
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
New Orleans
Dec. 21, 8 p.m. (ESPN2) Florida Atlantic (7-5) vs. Memphis (7-5)
Last season: Troy 41, Rice 17
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
Birmingham, Ala.
Dec. 22, 1 p.m. (ESPN2) Cincinnati (9-3) vs. Southern Miss (7-5)
Last season: South Florida 24, East Carolina 7
NEW MEXICO BOWL
Albuquerque, N.M.
Dec. 22, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN) New Mexico (8-4) vs. Nevada (6-6)
Last season: San Jose State 20, New Mexico 12
LAS VEGAS BOWL
Las Vegas
Dec. 22, 8 p.m. (ESPN) BYU (10-2) vs. UCLA (6-6)
Last season: No. 19 BYU 38, Oregon 8
HAWAII BOWL
Honolulu, Hawaii
Dec. 23, 8 p.m. (ESPN) East Carolina (7-5) vs. Boise State (10-2)
Last season: Hawaii 41, Arizona State 24
MOTOR CITY
Detroit
Dec. 26, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) Central Michigan (8-5) vs. Purdue (7-5)
Last season: Central Michigan 31, Middle Tennessee 14
HOLIDAY BOWL
San Diego
Dec. 27, 8 p.m. (ESPN) Arizona State (10-2) vs. Texas (9-3)
Last season: No. 20 Cal 45, No. 21 Texas A&M 10

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
Orlando, Fla.
Dec. 28, 5 p.m. (ESPN) Boston College (10-3) vs. Michigan State (7-5)
Last season: Maryland 24, Purdue 7
TEXAS BOWL
Houston
Dec. 28, 8 p.m. (NFL Network) TCU (7-5) vs. Houston (8-4)
Last season: No. 16 Rutgers 37, Kansas State 10
EMERALD BOWL
San Francisco
Dec. 28, 8:30 p.m. (ESPN) Maryland (6-6) vs. Oregon State (8-4)
Last season: Florida State 44, UCLA 27
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
Charlotte, N.C.
Dec. 29, 1 p.m. (ESPN) UConn (9-3) vs. Wake Forest (8-4)
Last season: No. 23 Boston College 25, Navy 24
LIBERTY BOWL
Memphis, Tenn.
Dec. 29, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN) Mississippi State (7-5) vs. UCF (10-3)
Last season: South Carolina 44, Houston 36
ALAMO BOWL
San Antonio
Dec. 29, 8 p.m. (ESPN) Penn State (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (7-5)
Last season: No. 18 Texas 26, Iowa 24
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Shreveport, La.
Dec. 30, 8 p.m. (ESPN) Colorado (6-6) vs. Alabama (6-6)
Last season: Oklahoma State 34, Alabama 31
ARMED FORCES BOWL
Fort Worth, Texas
Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m. (ESPN) Cal (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3)
Last season: Utah 25, Tulsa 13
SUN BOWL
El Paso, Texas
Dec. 31, 2 p.m.(CBS) USF (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)
Last season: Oregon State 39, Missouri 38
HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Boise, Idaho
Dec. 31, 2 p.m. (ESPN2) Fresno State (8-4) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)
Last season: Miami 21, Nevada 20
MUSIC CITY BOWL
Nashville, Tenn.
Dec. 31, 4 p.m. (ESPN) Florida State (7-5) vs. Kentucky (7-5)
Last season: Kentucky 28, Clemson 20
INSIGHT BOWL
Tempe, Ariz.
Dec. 31, 5:30 p.m. (NFL Network) Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
Last season: Texas Tech 44, Minnesota 41 (OT)
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
Atlanta
Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)
Last season: Georgia 31, No. 14 Virginia Tech 24
OUTBACK BOWL
Tampa, Fla.
Jan. 1, 11 a.m. (ESPN) Wisconsin (9-3) vs. Tennessee (9-4)
Last season: Penn State 20, No. 17 Tennessee 10
COTTON BOWL
Dallas
Jan. 1, 11:30 a.m. (FOX) Missouri (11-2) vs. Arkansas (8-4)
Last season: No. 10 Auburn, No. 22 Nebraska
GATOR BOWL
Jacksonville, Fla.
Jan. 1, Noon (CBS) Virginia (9-3) vs. Texas Tech (8-4)
Last season: No. 13 West Virginia 38, Georgia Tech 35
CAPITAL ONE
Orlando, Fla.
Jan. 1, 1 p.m. (ABC) Michigan (8-4) vs. Florida (9-3)
Last season: No. 6 Wisconsin 17, No. 12 Arkansas 14
ROSE BOWL
Pasadena, Calif.
Jan. 1, 4:30 p.m. (ABC) USC (10-2) vs. Illinois (9-3)
Last season: No. 8 USC 32, No. 3 Michigan 18
SUGAR
New Orleans
Jan. 1, 8:30 p.m. (FOX) Hawaii (12-0) vs. Georgia (10-2)
Last season: No. 4 LSU 41, No. 11 Notre Dame 14
FIESTA BOWL
Glendale, Ariz.
Jan. 2, 8:00 p.m. (FOX) West Virginia (10-2) vs. Oklahoma (11-2)
Last season: No. 9 Boise State 43, No. 7 Oklahoma 42 (OT)
ORANGE BOWL
Miami
Jan. 3, 8 p.m. (FOX) Kansas (11-1) vs. Virginia Tech (11-2)
Last season: No. 5 Louisville 24, No. 15 Wake Forest 13
INTERNATIONAL BOWL
Toronto
Jan. 5, Noon (ESPN2) Rutgers (7-5) vs. Ball State (7-5)
Last season: Cincinnati 27, Western Michigan 24
GMAC BOWL
Mobile, Ala.
Jan. 6, 8 p.m. (ESPN) Tulsa (9-4) vs. Bowling Green (8-4)
Last season: Southern Miss 28, Ohio 7
BCS TITLE GAME
New Orleans
Jan. 7, 8 p.m. (FOX) Ohio State (11-1) vs. LSU (11-2)
Last season: No. 2 Florida 41, No. 1 Ohio State 14

CHRISTMAS CAME EARLY:

A big thanks to Old as Dirt who sent me one of the best things ever last week in preparation for the big Steelers-Patriots game (which turned out not so big, more on that later). I anxiously tore open the UPS delivered package to find this:

That's right, my very own Steelers hard hat for game day. Nice.
OAD requested a picture with me wearing it so he had "proof that I got you to wear a helmet".
Well, game day came and once again I had reason to hate the Seachickens, or more importantly, that I lived in an NFL city that was not Pittsburgh. Why you ask? Because the NFL has some stupid licensing agreement that dictates that if a team is playing at home then no other games can be televised on the local affiliate. So that meant that even though we pay a bajillion dollars for our cable, I was stuck with the stupid Chicken Hawks versus the Cardinals. Ugh. The worst was when I was watching the NFL pre-game on CBS and at the end when they went to their scheduled televised game they made a point of taunting me, "...and later, most of you will be watching the marquee game of the day between the Steelers and Patriots". Aaaarrghh!!!
Being resourceful though I resorted to old school meets new school by finding the game on an online streaming CBS radio station and hooked it up through my stereo:


After the first quarter I went very old school and took my lady's Walkman and listened to AM 950 in between trees blocking the signal on my ride. The last time I listened to a game on AM radio whilst on a ride I didn't like the outcome of that either. It was November 25, 1995. I know the date exactly because it was when #2 and unbeaten Ohio State with standout players like eventual Heisman Trophy winner Eddie George, Mike Vrable, Shawn Springs, Terry Glenn and Orlando Pace played the 8 and 3 Wolverines in Ann Arbor. It was the day that Wolverine running back Tim Biakabutuka ran all over the Buckeyes, finishing the game with 313 yards and a Michigan upset over the Buckeyes.
The lesson in all of this: no more listening to games that I care about the outcome on a ride. Superstitious? You bet.

I wish I could quit you!

I've been an Arena Football fan since the very beginning. Yes, I know it sounds crazy, but I love the game. Lots of action and I like watching guys playing for the love of the game and trying to make it to the next level. Any way, I've had season tickets for the Arizona Rattlers since I moved here. The tickets got really expensive for my close-to-the-action seats. So much so that I cut them loose. It didn't hurt that the Rattlers absolutely sucked last year.

But just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in! The Rattlers have made some solid off-season moves (including signing league leading receiver Siaha Burley), but more importantly they lowered prices and made a great, unheard of, guarantee. If the Rattlers don't make the playoffs, we get ALL of our money back. The Rattlers used to sell out, but the Dbacks changed all that. They need more fannys in the seats to create a fun atmosphere. This guarantee is a great way to do that. I got much cheaper seats (in the end zone of the lower bowl) so that it could be affordable and it should be fun. The view from my seats: click here.